The United States’ fossil fuel industry appears to be rebounding after years of decline.
In 2024, under the Biden administration, more solar and wind energy was coming online, with fossil fuels only accounting for 5% of new power.
But by 2030, oil, gas and coal could make up 70% of new power, according to a recent Environmental Defense Fund report analyzing planned development.
This shift is likely due to a whiplash of policy changes from the Trump administration and Congress, which have deregulated and invested in the fossil fuel industry, while creating barriers for renewables.
“We stand at a junction point where we need to decide if we're going to dedicate ourselves to promoting human health, or we're gonna dedicate ourselves to promoting fossil fuels,” said David Villagrana, lead counsel of Clean Energy Tax Solutions at the Environmental Defense Fund.
In addition to the fuels’ impacts on human health and the environment, Villagrana said the switch doesn’t make financial sense.
“It's clear that wind and solar are less expensive to produce,” he said.
That is true in most cases, according to a highly cited annual report from Lazard, a financial advisory firm. Some natural gas plants, however, can be cheaper per megawatt-hour in comparison to wind and solar when they’re paired with batteries.
That kind of battery storage is necessary for large energy users like data centers, which are often turning to natural gas, since developers say it’s cheaper. Prices of gas turbines, which are in short supply, could also drive up prices, though.
“Consumers are gonna have to pay in some way or form,” said Ryan McConnaughey, interim president at the trade group Petroleum Association of Wyoming, where the state economy has long cycled through fossil fuel boom and busts.
McConnaughey said that the turn back to fossil fuels is a big win for the members he represents.
“It's going to take fossil fuels, no matter what, just to meet the level of demand,” he said.
Federal data shows that, after 15 years of nearly stable electricity consumption in the U.S., demand has increased by an average of about 2% over the last five years. Consumption is expected to grow through 2050 at a rate of 0.9% to 1.6% a year, with data centers comprising a big cut of that.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Boise State Public Radio, Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Northern Colorado, KANW in New Mexico, Colorado Public Radio and KJZZ in Arizona as well as NPR, with support from affiliate newsrooms across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and Eric and Wendy Schmidt.
