The year-round population of the Lake Tahoe Basin is roughly 55,000 people. But during the summer months, when tourists flock to the crystal blue lake straddling Nevada and California, the population can swell to 300,000.
For years, officials on Tahoe’s north shore estimated it would take about four hours to evacuate everyone from the area during a major wildfire.
But new AI simulations found it could take up to 14 hours. The study simulated road closures, rear-end crashes that often occur during evacuations, and traffic bottlenecks due to the lack of roads leading out of the area.
“We just need to get this out in the public in hopes that we can shine the light on more accurate evacuation times and inform land use planners,” said Doug Flaherty, president of TahoeCleanAir.org, which commissioned the study done by PyroAnalysis and Ladris.
Flaherty, a retired battalion chief, said previous estimates didn’t account for sharp increases in Lake Tahoe’s summer tourism, and rise in owners of second homes.
“We're an international destination point,” he said. “But when you add the number of short-term rentals, some of the major projects that have occurred since 2012, I’m even more concerned about the safety of visitors and residences.”
Flaherty said he urges Tahoe officials to use the report’s findings when they are considering new land development projects.
These wildfire evacuation simulations come three years after the Caldor Fire scorched more than 200,000 acres south of Lake Tahoe, forcing thousands of residents to evacuate.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
